OrbitalHub

Credits: NASA

As mentioned in a previous post, only a small fraction of the existing space debris population is detectable and tracked by ground systems. A smaller fraction is catalogued by special programs and/or departments of national space agencies. This is where statistics comes into play. Numerous models have been created in order to assess present collision risks associated with certain orbits and to predict future evolution of the debris environment around Earth.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed two categories of applications for modeling of space debris environment and risk analysis. The first category, based on evolutionary models such as NASA’s long term debris environment evolutionary model (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model or LEGEND), are designed to predict the evolution of the debris environment.

These models cover the near-Earth space between 200 km and 50,000 km, provide space debris characteristics for a debris population consisting of particles as small as 1 mm, and have a typical projection period of 100 years. The second category, which consists of engineering models like ORDEM2000, is used for debris impact risk assessment for spacecraft and satellites, and also as benchmarks for ground-based debris measurements and observations.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has a different set of tools used for modeling the space debris environment and assessing risk associated with collisions in Earth orbit. The DISCOS database (the Database and Information System Characterizing Objects in Space) consolidates the knowledge on all known objects tracked since Sputnik-1, and it is recognized as a reliable and dependable source of information on space objects in Earth orbit. MASTER (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) is the agency’s most prominent debris risk assessment tool, which uses statistical methods to determine the impact flux information from all recorded historic debris generation events. ESA also uses DELTA (Debris Environment Long-Term Analysis) to conduct analysis of the effectiveness of debris mitigation measures on the stability of the debris population. Such analysis can cover 100 to 200 year time spans.

Credits: NASA

The adventure started on October 4, 1957, when the former Soviet Union successfully launched the first artificial satellite, Sputnik-1, using a rocket that was a modified Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICMB). Even if the political implications at that time were very important, as the launch ignited the Space Race within the Cold War, we can argue that the scientific accomplishments were more significant.

These accomplishments relied upon the theoretical work of scientists like Hermann Oberth and Konstantin Tsiolkovsky.

What followed this event, as mentioned above, was a race.

Explorer-1, the first American artificial satellite, was launched on January 31, 1958. Yuri Gagarin was the first human in outer space and the first to orbit the Earth on April 21, 1961. He was followed closely by Alan Shepard, who became the first American to travel into space onboard the Freedom-7 capsule, on May 5, 1961.

On August 19, 1964, the first geostationary communication satellite, Syncomm-3, was placed in orbit over the International Date Line. Syncomm-3 was used to relay the television coverage of the 1964 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, Japan, to the United States. The first to propose the concept of a communication satellite was Arthur C. Clarke, who in October 1945 published an article in the British magazine Wireless World that described the fundamental concepts behind the development of artificial satellites used to relay radio signals.

The first space station, Salyut-1, was launched on April 19, 1971. Even if the space station had a short operational life, as it re-entered the Earth atmosphere on October 11, 1971, it tested elements of the systems required on a space station and conducted scientific research and experiments. The construction of the first international research facility in Earth orbit, the International Space Station (ISS), began in 1998. The station is still under construction and it will be operational until at least 2015.

Where are we now, after 53 years of exploration of the space in the proximity of Earth? Since the launch of Sputnik on October 4, 1957, some 4,600 launches have orbited more than 6,000 satellites. All of these activities have created a cloud of orbiting particles around Earth. This new environment is referred to as space debris or orbital debris. Even if most of these particles are small in size (less than 1 cm), they are a source of great concern as the kinetic energies associated with impacts at orbital velocities, which are in the range 8-10 km/s or 28,800-36,000 km/h, are very high. It has been estimated that the total mass in orbit is 5,800 tons.